Russia's war on Ukraine was not an emergency or sudden or outside the context of events and who follow the relationship between the two countries, considers war a natural or perhaps an inevitable matter.

With a quick review of the most prominent crises that have become a clear title for the relationship between the two countries, and these crises were a major motive for the ongoing war now. We should review the most prominent crises through important stages in the history of the turbulent and tense relationship between the two countries.

It seemed necessary to stop at two matters that Russia concern, and in any case they are not negotiable, namely the nuclear weapons of some countries of the Soviet Union (Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus) (Ukraine has become the third country in the world to possess nuclear warheads of approximately 175 long-range missiles, along 1,800 nuclear warheads), as well as its concern about the expansion of NATO to its western borders. The Russian concern about nuclear weapons was the fear of terrorists to control those weapons, especially as there are many areas outside the control of central governments. And on the eve of the dissolution of the Soviet Union, which is the most complex stage that Russia is going through, Russia did not neglect or condone these two matters.

In 1992, the Lisbon Protocol (Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Belarus, the Russian Federation and the United States) was signed. According to the protocol, these countries renounced the nuclear weapons on their territories and transferred them to Russia, but Ukraine set a condition that is a security guarantee and the guarantee of its territorial integrity, which Ukraine obtained in Budapest memorandum in 1994 that was signed by Russia, Ukraine, the United States and the United Kingdom. This memorandum was reconfirmed in 2014, when Crimea became part of Russia.

A controversy took place over that memorandum, as Russia considered the memorandum to be an announcement, and it had not been certified, so it can not be considered as an agreement. In 2016, Russia made it clear that the countries guarantor of Ukraine's  independence and territorial integrity pledged not to use nuclear weapons in an attack on Ukraine.

For the extension of NATO to Russia's western borders, Russia took a strong opposition. When Georgia tried to join the alliance, Russia launched a military intervention in Georgia, and supported and recognized the secession and independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The Russians believe that the West has approached Russia's western borders more than once through the expansion of NATO to the east. In 1999, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland entered, and Dagestan was a candidate to join, so Russia ended the rebellion there.

Also in 2004, when NATO annexed Estonia and Latvia, Russia could not respond by being preoccupied with the Chechen war. However, Russia obtained guarantees not to deploy missiles on the territories of Poland, Latvia and Estonia.

In 2003, when Russia began constructing a dam on the Kerch Strait, this step was one of the escalation steps between the two countries, as this dam would close the outlet to the Sea of ??Azov.

In 2004, Russia supported the presidential candidate that was close to Russia in the elections, and when there was an objection to the election results on the grounds of fraud, Russia cut off the gas from Ukraine in 2006 and 2009.

And when there was a rebellion in eastern Ukraine from two separatists, according to reports, Ukraine was able to end that rebellion, but Russia helped the separatists, and the Ukrainian forces were defeated, which prompted Ukraine to file lawsuits against Russia. In 2015, the fighting was renewed by the same sides.

Since the independence of Ukraine in 1991, the Ukrainian decision-maker has been keen on a policy of balance between Russian influence and Western European penetration, especially when European investment grew in various fields, especially in the energy sector.

In 2004, the Ukrainian leadership had the desire to sign an association treaty with Europe, but at the same time, the Ukrainian leadership refused joining NATO while maintaining special relations with Russia, and the Ukrainian leadership remained keen on the special relationship with Russia. In the same year, the opposition leader won the elections. This new leadership has a tendency towards the West, and during its reign Ukraine faced many internal problems such as corruption and failure, and despite of promises of reform, it did not solve the matter.

In the same year, the opposition leader won the elections. This new leadership has a tendency towards the West, and during its reign Ukraine faced many internal problems such as corruption and failure, and despite promises of reform, it did not address the matter.

2010 President Yankevich was re-elected, who had distinguished relations with Russia and was careful to open up towards the West. An agreement was signed with Russia to lease a naval military base in Crimea for the Russian fleet for 25 years. The new parliament also withdrew Ukraine's request to join NATO, at that time Ukraine had submitted an application to join NATO in 2008. Also, the Parliament had taken many deterrent decisions against the opposition, which is keen on rapprochement with Europe and the West. After the president's refusal to sign the association agreement with the European Union, this led to an escalation of public action against the authority, and due to the events, the president fled with some officials to Russia, leaving a political vacuum in the country.

New elections were prepared, and won by the opposition leader. During the era of this president, Ukraine opened up towards Europe and the West by increasing European capital in various sectors, especially after the announcement of the privatization of many sectors. This made Europe able to influence directly on the decision maker in Ukraine. These steps led to the occurrence of splits in the Ukrainian society between the supporters of the steps and the opponents. The matter developed into clashes and cracks in the Ukrainian society. At the same time, Russia was not far from the events that Ukraine was going through, Russia took advantage of the events and intervened in eastern Ukraine under the pretext of protecting the Russian minority residing in this part of Ukraine. Also, the matter developed into separatist groups declaring the independence of two regions in the east of the country (Dontsk and Luhansk). This rebellion received assistance and support from Russia. In addition, Russia held a referendum on the self-determination of the Crimea and then annex it to the Russian entity.

As a result, the United Nations General Assembly issued its resolution regarding the integrity of the Ukrainian region. The Ukrainian Parliament also took many decisions, considering Russia an occupying country, and the Ukrainian Parliament addressed many legislative bodies around the world, considering Russia an aggressor country. Ukraine has also filed lawsuits with the International Court of Justice, accusing it of sponsoring terrorism in the east of the country and carrying out acts of racial discrimination with the Ukrainians in Crimea. The lands that fell under the Russian occupation are about 2. 7 of the total Ukrainian territory.

In 2019, the current president (Zelinsky) won and started his reform project by fighting gangs and mafias, and despite the passage of years since his wisdom did not indicate any positive results for his campaign. As a result, and through a survey that showed a decline in his popularity in return for his opponent,this led him to confront Russia through many procedures. It started by closing TV channels and pursuing financiers close to Russia who have a great influence on the decision-maker in Ukraine, especially with someone who is considered close and personal friend of the Russian President.

On the other hand, the Ukrainian president has taken over men who have hard-line positions with Russia in managing important joints in the country, especially in the military establishment, and he purged the state apparatus of all those who have influence and are close to Russia, and established the Ukrainian National Security Operations Room, which issues decisions and orders to prosecute anyone who believes He has tendency for Russia. In addition, he directed stinging criticism at the Russian president through tweets on social media. The Ukrainian president also asked in 2019 to reconsider some of the terms of the Minsk Agreement signed in 2015. This request was considered a provocation to the Russian president.

With the desire of Ukraine president to join NATO quickly, Russia is holding many means of pressure on Ukraine; the most important are the Crimea and the separate regions supported by Russia, in addition to gas and energy.

In this tense atmosphere, war broke out between the two countries, and each of the two sides has its justifications for their attitudes regarding these problems. Russia believes that Ukraine has become the spearhead of the West towards Russia, in addition to what Russia is marketing, accusing Ukraine of persecuting the Russians in the country. In addition, Russia believes that NATO's actions in the Black Sea, with the blessing of Ukraine, are provocative.

Today, the world is witnessing an explicit attitude for the war on Ukraine, and Russia has not hidden its conditions to stop the war and withdraw. The most important of these conditions is making Ukraine a neutral state, withdrawing NATO weapons to before 1997, as well as recognizing the Crimean peninsula as part of the Russian entity, with the arrangement of a special status for it in Ukraine. Russia takes into account its interests, and the most important of these conditions is that Ukraine does not join NATO. On the other hand, the West and NATO  find Ukraine has geopolitical importance. They also place Ukraine as an internal territory for Russia in the case of a war between the West and Russia, Ukraine would then become an important center for supplying forces at the Russian borders, and the defeats Napoleon faced and after him Hitler at the borders Russia were because there were not securing internal lands in the Russian depth.

In all the scenarios that will result from the war, and in all possibilities, if Ukraine was pushed to war or its decision was independent, Ukraine, as a country and people, they will pay the bill for this war. This is the fate of those who accept playing with the strong in a world where there is no place for the weak and logic.

Dr. Mazen Sehmy Nassar

University of Anbar College of Law and Political Science/Department of Political Science