Russian’s war on Ukraine was not an adventitious war, yet an ordinary one. So who watches the relation between those two countries sees the inevitability of the military confrontation. A quick review on the more important crises, through periods of the tensions between Russia and Ukraine.   

It is necessary to focus on two basic issues, for Russia that not negotiable or bargaining and surely that’s what disturbed Russia. The nuclear weapon which is possessed by the former Soviet Union states as, (Kazakhstan Belarus and Ukraine) which has become the third state with almost 175 long-range nuclear rockets besides 1800 nuclear warheads, the second disturbing issue is its fear of the NATO expands towards the eastern borders. Russia’s worry about nuclear weapons is the fear of being controlled by terrorist, especially there are many states stand out of their central governments. After the break-up of the Soviet Union which definitely considered as the most difficult period, Russia still giving those two issues the priority to deal with.

Under the Lisbon Protocol which has been signed between (Kazakhstan, Belarus, Ukraine, Russian Federation and the united states), these states have abandoned their nuclear weapons and have transferred into Russia , however Ukraine put a condition to protect its lands and reserve its security so Ukraine got it through the Budapest memorandum in 1994 signed by (UK, US, Russia and Ukraine). That memorandum was reaffirmed in 2014 when Crimea became a part of Russia. The memorandum made a lawful dispute, as for Russia which considered that memorandum was unsigned and considered it just as incomplete advertisement, and it would not even qualified as a memorandum. In 2016, Russia has declared the guarantors of Ukraine independence and territorial integrity pledged not to use nuclear weapon against Ukraine.

With regards to NATO’s expands near the western borders of Russia, Russia has stand strongly against it, so when Georgia tried to join the allies, Russia started a military intervention into the Georgia’s lands, also it acted on supporting the detachable and independence of Abkhazia and south Ossetia then confessed that.

 The Russians believe that Westerners have more than once have approached Russian’s western borders through NATO’s eastward expansion, in 1999, each (the Czech republic, Hungary and Poland) has joined the alliance, also Dagestan was a candidate to join it, which prompted Russia to put down the rebellion there, Also in 2004, when NATO annexed the two countries (Estonia and Latvia), Russia was unable to take any action against that at that time, because of the Chechnya events, However, Russia has obtained a pledge, not to deploy ballistic missiles on the territory of (Poland, Latvia and Estonia). In 2003, a step was considered as a step of escalation, when Russia began to construct a dam at the Kerch Strait, consequently, the construction of this dam would close the outlet to the Sea of ??Azov. Russia supported a presidential candidate close to it in 2004, and cut off gas supplies to Ukraine from 2006 to 2009, when the results of those elections were contested under the pretext of forgery.

And when a rebel in eastern Ukraine has been held by separatists, Russia, according to reports, was able to put an end for that, but, in the other hand Russia supported them, which ultimately led to the defeat of the Ukrainian forces, Ukraine then filed a lawsuit against Russia, and fighting renewed in 2015 with the same conflicting parties.

Since Ukraine’s independence in 1991, the Ukrainian decision-maker keened to work on the principle of a policy of the balance between Russian influence and the Western European penetration, when European investment grew, in various fields, especially in the energy sector.

The Ukrainian leadership had a desire to sign an association treaty with Europe in 2004, at the same time, the Ukrainian leadership rejected the issue of joining NATO, taking care to maintain special relations with Russia, and remained on it, anyhow, in the same year, the opposition leader won the presidential elections, and as it is known, the tendency of this leadership towards the West and was obvious, Ukraine faced many internal problems during his reign such as corruption and  failure, but it did not treat any of the issues nor the problems, despite the promises of  reforms.

In 2010, President Yankevich, who apparently had distinguished relations with Russia and acted to open up cautiously towards the West, was re-elected. During his reign, an agreement has signed with Russia to lease a naval military base in Crimea for a period of 25 years for the benefit of the Russian fleet. The new parliament has withdrawn Ukraine’s request in 2008 to join NATO, in addition to the fact that the parliament has taken many deterrent decisions in the face of the oppositions who were keen on rapprochement with Europe and the West. As a result of these events, the president fled with some officials to Russia, leaving a political vacuum in the country. A new election were held and the opposition leader won it, and Ukraine opened to Europe during the era of this president, and European capital increased in various fields, especially after the announcement of the privatization of many of them, which made Europe able to influence on the decision-maker in Ukraine.

These steps led to make splits in the Ukrainian society between supporters and opponents, which led to the development of the matter to the occurrence of clashes and rifts in the Ukrainian society. Russia was not far from what was going on there, so it found the opportunity for these events to intervene, and has intervened in eastern Ukraine under the pretext of protecting the Russian minority there, the matter was developed into separatist groups, followed by the declaration of the independence of two regions in the east of the country, namely Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and it is natural that these rebellions were supported by Russia, so it rushed to hold a referendum on self-determination in the Crimea, and then annexed it to the Russian entity.

 As a result, the United Nations General Assembly issued its resolution on the territorial integrity of Ukraine, and the Ukrainian parliament has taken many decisions, as this intervention was considered as a Russian occupation and that Russia was an occupying power, and the Ukrainian Parliament addressed many legislative parties around the world considering Russia is an aggressor country, and Ukraine has also filed a lawsuit with the International Court of Justice, accusing it of sponsoring terrorism in the east of the country, and of carrying out acts of racial discrimination with the Ukrainians in Crimea. The lands that fell under the Russian occupation amounted to about 2 out of 7 of the total Ukrainian lands.

In 2019, the current president, Zelensky won and began his reform project by fighting gangs and mafias, and despite the passage of years since his rule, no positive results were recorded, and that was evident through a poll in which it was found that his popularity declined in front of his opponent, which prompted him to take many procedures to confront Russia Many television channels were closed, and many financiers close to Russia who have a great influence on the decision-maker in Ukraine  were prosecuted especially with a person who was considered close and personal friend to the Russian President, and the Ukrainian President appointed men who had hard-line positions towards Russia also he acted on purging the state apparatus from the influential men close to Russia, And he established an operations room for the Ukrainian national security, which issued decisions and orders to prosecute anyone who has a tendency toward Russia, in addition to his criticism of Putin through social networking tweets. Also, the Ukrainian president, in 2019, asked to reconsider some of the provisions of the Minsk Agreement signed in 2015, as Russia considered the request as a provocation to the Russian President.

Russia has many means of pressure on Ukraine, the most important was the Crimea and the separate regions supported by Russia, in addition to the gas and energy card.

In the face of this charged atmosphere, a war was broken out between the two countries till this moment, and each of the warring parties has its justifications for the soundness of its position regarding these problems. For Russia, it believed that Ukraine has become as a West’s knife in its flank, in addition to Russia’s accusations of persecuting the Russians in the country, in addition to its belief that NATO's blessing to Ukraine in the Black Sea region is nothing but provocative actions.

Today, the world is witnessing an explicit and clear position on the war on Ukraine, just as Russia doesn’t not hide its conditions to stop the fighting or withdraw, and one of the most important conditions of Russia is that Ukraine be a neutral country, and also that NATO weapons be withdrawn to before 1997, and recognition that the Crimea is a part of The Russian entity with arranging a special situation for Russia in Ukraine in which its interests are taken into account, and at the forefront of Russia’s interests is Ukraine’s non-joining of NATO, In contrast, both the West and NATO find geopolitical importance in Ukraine, as they place Ukraine as an internal territory for Russia, and it becomes an important supply center for their armed forces on the Russian borders in the event of a war between Russia and the West. Where the belief that the reason for the defeat of Napoleon and followed by the defeat of Hitler at the Russian borders is due to the lack of securing internal lands in the Russian depth

As a result and for all the possible scenarios that will result from the war, whether Ukraine forced to enter the war, or the decision was taken independently, no one will pay the bill for this war but Ukraine, country and people.. This is definitely the fate of those who accept playing with professionals, in a world where beginners have no logic and no place in it. 

Assistant Professor Dr. (Mazen Sahmi Nassar)

Faculty of Law and Political Science/  Department of Political Science