Professor Ali Hussein Ibrahim Al-Bayati

Department of Soil Sciences and Water Resources

College of Agriculture - University of Anbar

    Climate change is the long-term change in temperature and weather patterns. These shifts may be natural, for example, through changes in the solar cycle, or by human influence. In this context, it has been observed since the beginning of the nineteenth century that human activities have become the main cause of climate change. This is attributed to the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas, as their burning results in greenhouse gas emissions that work as a cover that wraps around the globe, which leads to trapping the sun's rays and raising temperatures.

According to Iraq's national inventory of greenhouse gases for the year 1997, Iraq contributed about 72,658 giga grams equivalent of carbon dioxide emitted to the atmosphere, and several sectors contributed to the production of this quantity, including the energy sector 54,419 giga grams equivalent of carbon dioxide, equivalent to 75. The industry sector has 6.422 giga grams equivalent of carbon dioxide, equivalent to 8.8%, and the agriculture sector 8.084%, equivalent to 11.1%, and waste is 3.733 giga grams equivalent of carbon dioxide, equivalent to 5.1%.

1. The impact of climate change on the agricultural sector

    The agricultural sector constitutes a major part of the economic and social life in Iraq, as it constitutes 8% of the value of the gross domestic product. Its arable land area is about 11.1 million hectares, which constitutes 26.2% of the total area of ??the country. Almost half of the arable land is located within the areas available for irrigation from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers and their tributaries according to the technical and economic perspective, but the amount of water resources available from these water sources It only suffices to irrigate an area of ??about 3.3 million hectares. As for the other half of the arable land, 15% of it falls within the rainy areas guaranteed rain (the annual rainfall rate is more than 450 mm/year), and 23% of it falls within the semi-guaranteed areas (annual rainfall ranges between 350-450 mm/year), while the rest, which reaches 62%, falls within areas with no rain guaranteed (in which rainfall ranges between 50 -350 mm/year) and according to the geographical location and distribution of rain lines.

1. The vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate change

   Most parts of Iraq, according to the amount of rainfall and the prevailing temperature rates, are located within what is known as arid and semi-arid climatic regions of the world. Therefore, the most  prominent effects of climate change on the country’s ecosystem are mainly reflected in the agricultural system and its water supply, where the most prominent climatic causes of this effect on agriculture are the rise in temperatures, variation and decrease in rainfall regimes, and an increase in the frequency of droughts compared to before and an example of the drought years 2001-2000-1999 and 2009-2008, As farmers, small farmers, livestock breeders and all groups related to agricultural production are the most prominent directly affected by the repercussions of climate change on agriculture, and this impact is reflected in the result on the systems of providing food to all the population as a result of the decline in agricultural production of plants and animals as a source of food as well as economic and social impacts on a large segment from the community as a result of reduced incomes of farmers, migration from the countryside to the city and other influences.

1.1 Vulnerability of rain-fed agriculture

   Wheat and barley crops constitute the main part of rain-fed agriculture in Iraq, as the percentage of the areas planted with the two crops within the rainy areas to the total area cultivated in both of them in the country is about 30% for wheat and 50% for barley. The fragility of rain-fed agriculture in light of climatic variations as a result of the large fluctuation in the amount of precipitation from year to year, as well as the variation in the amounts of its fall from month to month during the months of the winter season or its decline sometimes, whether at the beginning of the agricultural season or at the end, which has a negative impact on productivity crops grown in those lands, and perhaps what increases the fragility of rain-fed agriculture is that the rains begin to recede at the end of the spring, at a time when the cultivated grain crops, especially wheat, are in an advanced stage of maturity and need additional rain, which causes water stress on the plant, which is negatively reflected in the crop productivity, and sometimes the crop is lost dramatically. Almost complete and not harvested.

1.2 Vulnerability of irrigated farming systems

   Irrigated agriculture consumes more than 80% of the total water resources available from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. There are three main factors that contribute to the fragility of the irrigated farming systems that absorb the largest part of the rural population, which constitutes approximately 33% of the population of Iraq as fallowing:

A-  Most of the sources of the two rivers and their tributaries are located in countries neighboring Iraq, as these countries follow unilateral policies in managing the shared water resources. The continuous decrease of Iraq’s water imports will directly reflect and affect the crop and livestock farming systems in the country in the future.

B-              The deterioration of the state of the agricultural infrastructure, especially the irrigation and drainage facilities from irrigation canals, and as a result of years long periods of neglect increase the fragility of the irrigated farming system.

C-   Low efficiency of irrigation water use, especially at the level of irrigated fields, due to poor awareness the general view of farmers is of the importance of rational and regulated use of irrigation water and their failure to use modern water management applications in their fields, which causes water wastage and contributes to increasing the problem of salinity and waterlogging of lands.

1.3 Vulnerability of natural pasture and livestock systems

   The grazing lands constitute about 70% of the area of ??Iraq, and most of them are located within the so-called areas that are not guaranteed rain, and most of them fall below the rain line 200 mm / year. about the decline of grazing lands, what increases the fragility of the natural pasture systems is the overuse of the available natural pastures due to the lack of awareness among livestock herders of the importance of rational and rational grazing, where livestock is grazing in the early stages of the natural plant life, and this leads to the depletion of the natural plant and its failure to grow again even if there is rain on the other hand, the decrease in natural pastures contributes effectively to the impact on livestock dependent on grazing as a source of food, which is estimated at 50% for camels, 36% for goats, 34% for sheep, 25% for buffaloes and 23% for cows of the total livestock in Iraq. In a related context, the report of the National Livestock Survey 2008 of the Ministries of Agriculture and Planning indicated that the decline of vegetation cover, land degradation, lack of afforestation and problems of salinity resulting from climatic variation contributed to the increase in desertification that Iraq suffers from because of the major environmental problems it poses, foremost of which is the encroachment of sand dunes and land desert areas on agricultural lands, agricultural infrastructure, roads, and others.

   The impact of this sector on the repercussions of climate change can be summarized by several factors, most notably:

A - The area of ??land planted with fodder has decreased.

b- Negative effects on animal health resulting from the emergence of new diseases.

d- Negative effects on animal productivity as a result of heat stress.

1.4 Vulnerability of the plant pest sector

   As for the plant diseases sector, the expected impact varies according to the climatic cause, as the climatic conditions constitute one third of the factors responsible for the occurrence of the disease within the so-called disease triangle, and these factors are the live pathogen, the sensitive factor, and the suitable environmental conditions. The effect of temperature may accelerate or delay the appearance of the pest. For example, the Dubas palm bug, which is widely spread in Iraq, is affected by high temperature in terms of the appearance of nymphs, which affects the timing of combating this pest.

2. Treatments that can reduce the impact of climatic variations

A- Implementation of the project of using sprinkler irrigation in the cultivation of crops, especially strategic ones, such as wheat and barley

   This is to rationalize irrigation water as well as support the use of drip irrigation in vegetable cultivation and horticulture.

B- Establishing natural pasture stations in the pastoral areas of Iraq for the purpose of producing grazing plants especially the drought-tolerant and salinity-tolerant plants, and then the transfer and cultivation of these plants in pastoral areas, for the purpose of developing the degraded natural plant in addition to reducing the area of ??open land exposed to drought causing dust storms.

C- Implementation of the project to stabilize the moving sand dunes that affect agricultural lands and infrastructure for irrigation, drainage, roads and green belts projects in areas that have treated sand dunes .

D-        Establishing a desert oasis project based on groundwater in order to provide stations for drinking water, grazing livestock, increasing green pastures and considering them as a source for the multiplication and development of natural plant species.

E-         Establishing a network of agricultural meteorological stations in all governorates of Iraq, the aim of which is to provide information and analyzes related to weather and climate to those involved in the sector, including the effects of climate change.

F- Develop strains of drought-tolerant, salinity-  tolerant and environmentally compatible crops

     local, especially for the wheat crop.

G- Applying and expanding the water harvesting channel in desert areas to benefit from the torrential rains.